Home price appreciation in August is expected to set another record. What there is to know.

August data for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes is expected to be released today.

Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY / AFP via Getty Images

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A popular indicator of home price appreciation is expected to reflect a record when data for August is released later today. But other data shows that the upward trend in prices may falter.

August data for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes, among the most closely watched measures of US home price appreciation, is expected to be released today at 9 a.m. EDT. The indexes track home price appreciation nationally and in 20 of the country’s largest metropolitan areas.

Consensus expectations for the 20-city index suggest that prices accelerated 20% in August from a year earlier, FactSet estimates. Such an increase would be the last record in a summer of records. Last month’s release of July data was the third time in a row that monthly home price appreciation in the 20-City Index has reached an all-time high and the fourth consecutive monthly high nationwide.

These record streaks reflect a hot and highly competitive housing market in the spring and summer, fueled by low housing stock and strong demand from home buyers. From January to July, seasonally adjusted national home prices climbed an average of 15.3% from levels a year earlier. This is more than three times the historical index average of 4.1%.

Recently, there have been signs that home price growth is slowing, although the pace of price appreciation remains well above average. Last week, the National Association of Realtors said the median home selling price in September was 13.3% higher than the previous year, a historically high rate of growth, but slower than in previous months. .

There have also been other signs of less competition for home ownership. Buyer trafficking as reported by the association of real estate agents in the trade group September Real Estate Agent Confidence Index Survey slightly soggy compared to the previous month, while by Redfin The gauge of bidding wars in the same month declined to its lowest share this year.

If house price growth slowed, that wouldn’t mean buying a home would get cheaper. Freddie mac’s most recent quarterly forecasts, released earlier this month, predicts that home prices will continue to rise in 2022, albeit at a slower pace than in 2021.

Mortgage rates have also risen from their all-time lows at the start of the year, putting more pressure on affordability. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage exceeded 3% at the end of September and was 3.09% last week.

In a recent panel moderated by Global Manor, Realtor.com economists Danielle Hale and George Ratiu discussed the outlook for price growth over the medium term. Economists have said annual home price growth could weaken or decline over the next 18 months, but expect prices to remain relatively high due to fundamentals of supply and demand. (Global Manor, Barron, and the operator of Realtor.com Move Inc. are all owned by News Corp.)

Write to Shaina Mishkin at [email protected]

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